PHASE 2 · DRY RUN

Polymarket Signal Engine

Real-time detection of pricing inefficiencies, whale flows, arbitrage opportunities, and news-driven signals across 1,000+ prediction markets.

Markets Tracked

active prediction markets

Price Ticks

real-time updates

Whale Trades

$1k+ detected

Arb Opps

cross-market

Sniper Trades

DRY RUN + live

Signal Modules

scanning 24/7

Recent Activity LIVE

Type	Question	Side	Price	Cost	Max Win	Live $	Unreal	End	Days	Hours	Status	P/L
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All Sniper Trades DRY RUN + LIVE

Sva kupovina koju je signal engine napravio. DRY_RUN = demo (ne pravi novac). Kad faza postane LIVE — pravi USDC.

#	Hours	Signal	Market	Side	Shares	Price	Cost	Max Win	Live $	Unreal	Payout	End	Days Left	Status	P/L
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Top Tracked Markets by volume

Question	Category	Volume	Liquidity	Polymarket
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Overall Performance

Total Trades

Wins

Losses

Pending

Total Cost

Net P/L

By Signal Type

Signal	Trades	W/L/Pending	WR	Cost	P/L	ROI
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Fee Breakdown

Polymarket Fees (automatic deduction):

LP Winning Fee: 2% — on profit (gross - cost) × 0.02
Gas per Claim: $0.05 — Polygon redeem transaction
Buy Slippage: built in cost — we buy at ask + 0.04-0.05
USDC Deposit/Withdrawal — no fees (direct Polygon)

Net Profit formula: net = (size × $1) − (gross_profit × 0.02) − $0.05_gas − original_cost

Market Maker DRY RUN

Sustav postavlja 2-way limit orders (BUY + SELL) oko mid cijene. Zarada = spread × shares po popunjenom paru. DRY RUN simulira fills kad tržište prođe kroz našu cijenu.

Active Quotes

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Filled

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Stale

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Round Trips

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Spread P/L

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Recent Quotes

#	Time	Market	Side	Dir	Our Price	Mid	Size	Notional	Status	Fill $
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Round Trips by Market

Market	Active	Fills	Buy Cost	Sell Rev	Profit
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Ovaj tab je LIVE scan — pokazuje neg-risk arb prilike koje skener vidi prav sada. Prazno = efikasna tržišta trenutno. Povijest auto-executed DRY arbitraža → Arb Executed tab.

Neg-Risk Arbitrage LIVE SCAN

Matematički garantirane arbitraže na multi-outcome eventima. Polymarket garantira "samo 1 pobjeđuje", pa ako zbroj svih YES askova < $1 → risk-free profit kupnjom svih ishoda.

Scan uzima ~2-3 min (hits CLOB API per market)

Opportunities

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Best Edge

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Total Volume

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Click "Rescan Now" to search for arbitrage opportunities

Arb Executions DRY RUN

Stvarno izvršene neg-risk arbitraže. Kupljena svaka outcome, garantirani payout $1 po bundle-u.

#	Event	Shares	Markets	Cost	Exp. Payout	Exp. Profit	Edge	Status	Actual P/L	Executed
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ARHIVA — STRATEGIJA ODBAČENA (23.04.2026)

9h Phase 1 recording pokazao: ρ(CEX→PM) ≈ −0.03, 0 signala u 9h, sigmoid fair_value 266% gori od baseline. Teza da Binance vodi Polymarket na 15-min horizontu NE stoji. Service ugašen, data arhivirana u /opt/aibeting/polymarket_leadlag_bot/phase1_data_9h_20260423.tar.gz. Fokus premješten na neg-risk arbitraže (tab Neg-Risk Arb).

Lead-Lag V1 PHASE 1 RECORDER ?

Polymarket BTC 15m slot vs Binance bookTicker. 5Hz event loop, detektira lag i edge (sigmoid fair value). Phase 1 = čisti recorder, no trading.

Zadnji feature tick LIVE

Signal distribucija

Counts

Zadnji non-HOLD

Zadnjih 20 feature redova

Rotate log

SX Bet Whale Tracker DRY MIRROR 1:1000 10

Top 10 profitabilnih SX Bet wallet-a (24h, USDC). Mirror 1:1000 (whale $1k → naš $1 DRY). Cron 5 min.

Top 10 (24h)

Mirror summary

By status

By whale

Recent whale trades

Active Signal Modules 9 ACTIVE

🎯 Orderbook Depth

Detects imbalanced liquidity between bid/ask sides. Large ask imbalance → price likely to rise.

📊 Volume Spike

Unusual trading activity (z-score > 2). New information entering the market.

🐋 Whale Flow

Tracks $10k+ trades on 4-hour rolling window. Large wallets often have information edge.

₿ Oracle Crypto

Compares Polymarket crypto prediction vs real BTC/ETH price (Chainlink). Mispricings are short-lived.

☀️ Oracle Weather

Weather forecast discrepancy (min 10% edge). Slow-moving markets.

⚖️ Cross-Market Arbitrage

Complete-set & event-ladder detection. Risk-free profit if > 3% edge.

🚀 Orderbook Sweep

Large aggressive market orders that move price through multiple levels.

📰 News Feed

RSS + Reddit + NLP sentiment. 15-30 signals/scan. First-mover advantage.

⏳ Inefficiency

Stale markets, crypto_lag, correlated_lag — price hasn't updated despite news/volume changes.

API Endpoints

Endpoint	Opis
/api/sniper/stats	Ukupni brojevi
/api/sniper/signals	Sva sniper trades
/api/sniper/markets	Top 100 markets
/api/sniper/performance	Performance po signal_type

Tennis Live Edge — SX Bet ↔ Polymarket live

Live tenis arb-detector. Iste utakmice, dvije platforme. div_pct = SX_implied% − Poly_implied% (pp). + = SX favorit prejak. − = SX underdog prejak. Cron 1 min.

Signal Quality — tko je bio bliži pravom rezultatu

Resolver svakih 10 min završene utakmice usporedi: zadnji snapshot Polymarketa vs SX prije resolution-a, izračuna Brier score (manje = bolje). "Closer" = tko je bliže pogodio.

Razlučivanje po dubini divergencije

Zadnje rješene utakmice

Top divergencije (sortirano po |Δ|)

Pravac: SX_HIGH = SX precijenio ovu stranu (kupi obratnu na SX, ili ovu na Polymarketu). SX_LOW = SX podcijenio (kupi ovu na SX). size = USD raspoloživo na SX taker-bid-u.

Big Maker Alerts — manual placement live

Alert kad bilo koji maker postavi stake ≥ $500 na cijeni 1.40-2.50. Klik na link otvara market na sx.bet — ti ručno odlučiš i uplatiš. Telegram također javlja u real-time-u.

📐 Kelly bankroll: $ · 0.25× fractional · 5% max · prior 10W/20

📊 My results (manual followed alerts)

🤖 DRY auto-tracker filter: Basketball + Tennis @ odds 2.00-2.29 · Phase 1 validation

Flat $2 baseline

📐 Kelly 0.25× (bankroll $100, max 5%, 10W/20 prior)

Recent alerts (zadnja 3 dana)

Klikni ✓ da označiš da si pratio alert. Nakon meča klikni W / L / R da označiš ishod.

Preset:

Sport:

Odds:

Maker:

Result: